2021-22 Games of Interest Thread

[not a drake fan]

Think you have to root for Bradley tonight v. Drake. Preferably a lot, since the NET battle between UNI and Drake could very well matter.

Current win totals projected by Kenpom:

Loyola 13.62 wins
MSU 13.01
UNI 12.44
Drake 11.71
Bradley 11.13

So it projects UNI and Drake to both win 12 games, but it says UNI has an easier path to 12 and a better chance for more.

[sevelev711]

Bradley won by 9 today, pushing Drake to 8-5 (lol) and moving Bradley to a respectable 9-5.

[BCPanther]

Drake's regular season title chances are done. They're going to be last in the NET of the contenders tomorrow and the sweep is a head to head tiebreaker killer.

[CyCarp]

Tomorrow's game will be huge for us in the standings. A loss knocks us into tie for 2nd, .5 out of 1st and only 1.5 ahead of 5th. A win would put us alone in first by a game and two games ahead of 4th - with home games against the 2nd and 3rd teams with a chance to sweep the season series against them.

[BCPanther]

Honestly, with a win tomorrow is tough to find a scenario where we don't win the league. Pretty much forces Loyola and Missouri State to be perfect.

A loss and we've still got a perfectly viable path with the big ones at home.

House money tomorrow.

[not a drake fan]

I have an excel chart that I maintain for MVC probabilty, once the season gets down to the last few games. If my brain was half the size of Hacksaw's I could do it earlier in the year - maybe someday I'll get there. Not to step in Hacksaw's lane, but I like to look at the probability in a slightly different format as well. This uses Kenpom's probability.

Here is where it stands now. Drake's probably fell out of the MVC race last night, so it's down to 3 teams now.

[not a drake fan]

Winning the MVC should be the goal, and with a win today, UNI will have a very good shot at that.

But if that doesn't happen, and things work out the way that Kenpoom currently says they will, that may be a better result for UNI in my opinion.

It currently projects:
1) Loyola
2) MSU
3) UNI
4) Bradley
5) Drake

FWIW the metrics say Bradley is playing like the best team in the league right now but they're going to have a tough timem escaping that 4/5 game. You also want to avoid Loyola IMO. They have not been a world-beater of late, but the metrics still say they have been the best team during the season as a whole.

So here UNI would get SIU. Then MSU - a great team, but Jake seems to have Dana's number. And whoever gets out of that other side. That is about the ideal St. Louis scenario in my opinion.

[CyCarp]

The thing that scares me about MSU is Mosley. In my eyes, nobody else in the Valley is a game changer like him (other than AJ when he's on). If he's on, good luck. He single handedly almost beat us in January.

[BCPanther]

The thing that scares me about MSU is Mosley. In my eyes, nobody else in the Valley is a game changer like him (other than AJ when he's on). If he's on, good luck. He single handedly almost beat us in January.

That was his best game of the year, on his home floor and it wasn't enough.

[Username]

Hm.. I think I might have been wrong about Loyola, the NET seems to love them, the under 10 loss to Auburn and 2 point loss to Michigan State probably helps a lot as well as having no quad 3 or 4 losses.

As long as they don't drop a bad one down the stretch they could probably finish 4-1, win 1 in the valley tournament, and make it in maybe?

[QCPanther05]

I think we are going to win out and Loyola will have to lose at 2 (us and someone else) in the next five for us to get first right?

[sevelev711]

Hm.. I think I might have been wrong about Loyola, the NET seems to love them, the under 10 loss to Auburn and 2 point loss to Michigan State probably helps a lot as well as having no quad 3 or 4 losses.

As long as they don't drop a bad one down the stretch they could probably finish 4-1, win 1 in the valley tournament, and make it in maybe?

The pickers are human, and the Ramblers do have a name, and the very marketable Sister Jean, so that's something in their favor as well. Which, hey, I'd love for Loyola to get in as an at-large and go on a tear. Leave us with a big 6 year check on the way out the door.

[06panther10]

I think we are going to win out and Loyola will have to lose at 2 (us and someone else) in the next five for us to get first right?

To get the #1 seed? Yes. We can still be conference champions without Loyola losing a 2nd game, but we would be the 2 seed in STL.

[not a drake fan]

UNI looks pretty locked in to the 2 or 3 seed to me. Winning outright is a tall order, but personally I think that sharing the title and falling to the 2 seed would be the best outcome.

Loyola @ Valpo, Drake v. UE tonight - so a lot to lose for them and little to gain.


Today's Great Value version of Hacksaw's charts:

https://ibb.co/18v1dfW

[BCPanther]

Only thing that makes me really want the 1 seed is the auto-bid to the NIT if we don't win in StL.

Either way, I can't imagine we don't play in a postseason tournament even if it's the CIT.