2021-22 Games of Interest Thread

[BrockLesnar]

I really, really don't get this take. I don't want to see Creighton ever again. At least, their men's basketball program. It is not hyperbole to say that they're one of the big reasons that we're on the path of ruination that will ultimately lead to the school being shutdown within a few decades. I don't think it's possible to understate how good those teams would've been, not just to the basketball program, but for the school overall. Multiple 3 top-25 teams in a row, at least, and we know that the Tuttle year ended with us at #11, and who knows what kind of success we would've had in the tournament. You can't buy that publicity. Why would you want to play them again? Might as well as lament that Iowa State doesn't want to play Minnesota in football (and yes I know that the reasons are nowhere near equal, what Minnesota did is much much worse, that doesn't even need to be said, I was just making a comparison).

Creighton was just a team I picked due to Coach Mac. We don't get much of a non-conference schedule unless A10 teams play us. The problem is that besides the A10 and a holiday tournament we don't have schools that enhance our numbers. Yeah, once in a while we have a power 5 throw us a bone, but that's an exception rather than the rule. Hence, we deal with sub-par schedules that include in-state D 3 schools.

[sevelev711]

Creighton was just a team I picked due to Coach Mac. We don't get much of a non-conference schedule unless A10 teams play us. The problem is that besides the A10 and a holiday tournament we don't have schools that enhance our numbers. Yeah, once in a while we have a power 5 throw us a bone, but that's an exception rather than the rule. Hence, we deal with sub-par schedules that include in-state D 3 schools.

Okay, yeah, I know what you mean by that. You just picked the one team out of 350 however that would send me into a tizzy lol. But yeah, no, scheduling is a hard one for us. For the simple fact that both teams need to agree, and no matter who you are, you really don't want to play a school like UNI. If you're a school that takes buy games, you'd rather go to a school that will give you a bigger payout. If you're a P5 you want either another big name team or you want the buy game schools.

That really only leaves room for the buy game schools that can't find any more P5s, the rare somewhat cocky, non-traditionally good P5 school that will schedule us as a buy game because our name still has some decent clout (and because they can't schedule anyone bigger and need to actually prove themselves somewhat), and then schools in our situation, who are willing to do that home and home, loser loses the at-large style game, because they get it. Unfortunately, it just comes with the territory. The only way to get the schedule you actually want is to be a P5 school, or have insane amounts of cash on hand. If the price is right, we could get a home and home with Duke, but I mean, come on.

[Schack]

100% agree. That's why I can't fathom the idea of wanting to schedule a game with them. "But he's an alumni!" Yeah, and he used that to screw us over. The only time I want to face Creighton is in the Final Four of the NCAA tournament, and the only way I want that game to end is us winning by 80, and throwing down windmill dunks for the last three minutes, up to and after time expires. And then in the handshake line, I want Jacobson to reach out his hand for the handshake, only to pull it back at the last second and slick back his hair. Maybe give a d-generation x crotch chop at the Creighton fans that made the trip. McDermott slips and falls and then the entire team does the Allen Iverson-Ty Lue stepover.

That is the only condition I want to see Creighton ever again.

You Sir, are a consummate Panther Fan. Love it.

[BrockLesnar]

Okay, yeah, I know what you mean by that. You just picked the one team out of 350 however that would send me into a tizzy lol. But yeah, no, scheduling is a hard one for us. For the simple fact that both teams need to agree, and no matter who you are, you really don't want to play a school like UNI. If you're a school that takes buy games, you'd rather go to a school that will give you a bigger payout. If you're a P5 you want either another big name team or you want the buy game schools.

That really only leaves room for the buy game schools that can't find any more P5s, the rare somewhat cocky, non-traditionally good P5 school that will schedule us as a buy game because our name still has some decent clout (and because they can't schedule anyone bigger and need to actually prove themselves somewhat), and then schools in our situation, who are willing to do that home and home, loser loses the at-large style game, because they get it. Unfortunately, it just comes with the territory. The only way to get the schedule you actually want is to be a P5 school, or have insane amounts of cash on hand. If the price is right, we could get a home and home with Duke, but I mean, come on.

We have been in this D3 scheduling ever since becoming D1 in 1979. No escape for us. So, our non-conference is maybe 1 power 5, the holiday tournament, an A10, 5 regional D 1 schools like Vermont this season, and 2 D3 in state schools to equal 12 games assuming no cancellations.

[Username]

Loyola has to have kinda shot themselves in the foot in terms of an at large bid here barring rattling off basically every game to the championship, no?

[BCPanther]

Loyola has to have kinda shot themselves in the foot in terms of an at large bid here barring rattling off basically every game to the championship, no?

They're still okay as of today. Net in the 20s and three wins that look better on paper than they really are (DePaul, Vanderbilt, Arizona State). There isn't much margin left and I'd be more than happy to kill of the rest of those chances over the next couple weeks and they still have a game with Drake who controlled that entire game in Des Moines.

Having a 30 year old first time head coach is starting to catch them a little. Wardle severely outcoached him last night and he cracked down the stretch. He should have gotten a T (but we all know how awful Jeff Malham is) and he spent two timeouts lighting up Uguak instead of coaching when they were still in the game.

[not a drake fan]

FWIW Kenpom's projected seedings:

1) LU 14-4
2) MSU 13-5
3) Drake 12-6 (NET: 98)
4) UNI 12-6 (NET: 105)
5) Bradley 11-7
6) SIU 8-10
7) ILSU 6-12 (NET: 196)
8) Valpo 6-12 (NET: 216)
9) INSU 4-14
10) UE 3-15


UNI has the toughest schedule remaining but they definitely control their own destiny.

The NET battle between Drake and UNI could be crucial. You really want to avoid that 4-5 game with Bradley (especially if you pencil in LU as the #1).

Looking forward to Hacksaw's latest projections. Will probably paint a different picture, I believe his model uses the Sagarin rankings as the base.

[06panther10]

FWIW Kenpom's projected seedings:

1) LU 14-4
2) MSU 13-5
3) Drake 12-6 (NET: 98)
4) UNI 12-6 (NET: 105)
5) Bradley 11-7
6) SIU 8-10
7) ILSU 6-12 (NET: 196)
8) Valpo 6-12 (NET: 216)
9) INSU 4-14
10) UE 3-15


UNI has the toughest schedule remaining but they definitely control their own destiny.

The NET battle between Drake and UNI could be crucial. You really want to avoid that 5 seed.

Looking forward to Hacksaw's latest projections. Will probably paint a different picture, I believe his model uses the Sagarin rankings as the base.

I have a real hard time seeing Loyola go 5-1 and UNI going 2-3 down the stretch.

[not a drake fan]

Yeah I think there is room for improvement there for UNI. That model has MSU as a favorite over UNI by a fraction of 1%.

So it has UNI losing to MSU and Loyola twice. If you assume that UNI wins just one of those, that model would put UNI as the 2 seed.

I do think it'll be tough for the Valley to stop Loyola from going 5-1 though.
UNI, @Valpo, Drake, @ILSU, UE, UNI. They're going to be favored by 7-8+ in if those each games except for the road game in Cedar Falls.

[BCPanther]

I have a real hard time seeing Loyola go 5-1 and UNI going 2-3 down the stretch.

The Loyola team from last night doesn't beat Drake or UNI.

Also, I'll take Jake v Ford and Jake v Valentine 1000 times out of 1000.

The other flaw in all of the predictive models is lopping in UNI of Nov/Dec with UNI of now. Not the same team, not close to the same team.

[not a drake fan]

Definitely agree with that last point. When projecting games, Kenpom assumes that UNI #93 and Loyola is #33.

Torvik let's you sort the rankings by a given time period. If you set it so it only includes the games since Valley play really got started on 1/1, it comes back with this:

Bradley 44
MSU 60
UNI 74
LU 75
Drake 110

Loyola would still be the favorite because of the schedule advantage, I think, but UNI would be the clear #2.

[06panther10]

I think we have a real good shot to win on Sunday. For some reason this team has almost played better bball on the road. Looser, cleaner.

Wins at St Bonny, MSU, Drake already, that’s pretty impressive.

[UNIpanther99]

Hacksaw's latest update:

https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1491820564654305280?s=20&t=hIdO8o53ZkI6s2lVDqh_9w

[sevelev711]

5 simulations of 100,000 have Drake falling all the way to Thursday...Can you imagine?

[sivert]

5 simulations of 100,000 have Drake falling all the way to Thursday...Can you imagine?

hahahaha - I'm sure BC can...