2021-22 Games of Interest Thread

[CyCarp]

So, I'm not a math major, but lets be super generous and UNI a 90% chance of winning each game from here on out. I believe that puts UNI's expected season record [D1 Games] at 28.9 - 6.1. I took your word for it that there are 31 games left.

Let's be less generous, but still quite generous, and give UNI a 75% chance of winning each game. Expected record falls to 24.25 - 10.75.

UNI went 26-5 in two years ago and that probably wasn't enough. Drake went 25-4 last year and were the last team in. To even get into the NCAA discussion, UNI/Loyola/Drake/MSU will have to do something that is very unlikely over the next couple months. Not really even worth worrying about for a while. Let's just hope they keep playing good ball for now.

The good news IMO is that the Valley is hopefully going to be stronger at the top than it has been in recent years. With [hopefully] 4 top 75 teams, there will be more Q1 and Q2 opportunities, and the pressure to put up some ridiculous record will not be as high.

31 games includes 3 in Hawaii and 3 at Arch Madness. In the scenario given, the 5 losses would be to Nicholls (terrible loss), Vermont (bad loss), Arkansas (very good loss), Loyola (likely a good loss) and whoever at the championship in Arch Madness (likely a good loss). I have a real hard time seeing that resume even close to snubbed. 2 years ago we were on the bubble with 3 bad losses to Indiana St, Illinois St, SIU, plus getting murdered in the opening Arch Madness game. The Bonnies win yesterday is better than any other win we had two years ago also. If this scenario actually played out, we'd have arguably 3-4 better wins than what Drake had last year. The committee also wants to be stars in March Madness - AJ is that. Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I would be absolutely stunned if it didn't get in easily. Yes, it's very unlikely to happen, but the point still stands.

[not a drake fan]

Fair enough, and yes I agree, UNI would be comfortably if that were to happen.

[sevelev711]

I still don't even think it's worth talking about at-large chances until that starts to materialize a bit more. If we don't drop two more games until the middle of February, sure, but until then, let's just worry about the games in front of us.

[1994grad]

I still don't even think it's worth talking about at-large chances until that starts to materialize a bit more. If we don't drop two more games until the middle of February, sure, but until then, let's just worry about the games in front of us.

I agree. One game at a time and let's enjoy every minute of it.

[mcpo117]

I still don't even think it's worth talking about at-large chances until that starts to materialize a bit more. If we don't drop two more games until the middle of February, sure, but until then, let's just worry about the games in front of us.

Honestly nothing says "Panthernation" like being 2-3 with 1 D1 win and saying "you know, if we only lose 2 more games the entire season, we can maybe get at-large" lol. But I mean that in an endearing way because I do the same thing

[not a drake fan]

Honestly nothing says "Panthernation" like being 2-3 with 1 D1 win and saying "you know, if we only lose 2 more games the entire season, we can maybe get at-large" lol. But I mean that in an endearing way because I do the same thing

Yep. In 15 years with Jake, UNI has had 2 teams that would have received an at-large without an auto bid and one that was borderline. And I am also guilty of that same wishful thinking most years.
And that's not a knock on Jake, he's had plenty of NCAA tourney caliber teams but the deck is stacked against him. The committee does not understand probability they punish mid-majors unduly for "bad losses." And 2/15 is better than the track record for the vast majority of non-P5 teams.

[BCPanther]

Yep. In 15 years with Jake, UNI has had 2 teams that would have received an at-large without an auto bid and one that was borderline. And I am also guilty of that same wishful thinking most years.
And that's not a knock on Jake, he's had plenty of NCAA tourney caliber teams but the deck is stacked against him. The committee does not understand probability they punish mid-majors unduly for "bad losses." And 2/15 is better than the track record for the vast majority of non-P5 teams.

3. 19-20 would have been one of the first couple in or out had there been a tournament.

That's the most in the league showing exactly how the deck is stacked.

[DownGoesKansas]

We are not getting an at large, this is a pointless discussion. but we can have a very good season still.

not sure this was mentioned but D+ just had an awful weekend.

[BCPanther]

Tucker DeVries throwing up 30 footers with no passes with 25 left on the shot clock is sure one choice on how to run offense.

Also noticed that Brodie is somehow now Charmin Soft. He keeps that up and Phyfe, Hudson and Prim are going to absolutely bury him.

[Wxcpanther]

Tucker DeVries throwing up 30 footers with no passes with 25 left on the shot clock is sure one choice on how to run offense.

Also noticed that Brodie is somehow now Charmin Soft. He keeps that up and Phyfe, Hudson and Prim are going to absolutely bury him.

People in Des Moines are going to be maaaad when Cole Henry wins freshman of the year.

[DownGoesKansas]

People in Des Moines are going to be maaaad when Cole Henry wins freshman of the year.

1) He is not a freshman
2) He wouldnt win it if he was.
3) I hope hes good

[BrockLesnar]

31 games includes 3 in Hawaii and 3 at Arch Madness. In the scenario given, the 5 losses would be to Nicholls (terrible loss), Vermont (bad loss), Arkansas (very good loss), Loyola (likely a good loss) and whoever at the championship in Arch Madness (likely a good loss). I have a real hard time seeing that resume even close to snubbed. 2 years ago we were on the bubble with 3 bad losses to Indiana St, Illinois St, SIU, plus getting murdered in the opening Arch Madness game. The Bonnies win yesterday is better than any other win we had two years ago also. If this scenario actually played out, we'd have arguably 3-4 better wins than what Drake had last year. The committee also wants to be stars in March Madness - AJ is that. Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I would be absolutely stunned if it didn't get in easily. Yes, it's very unlikely to happen, but the point still stands.

I see Vermont and Nicolas winning their conference tourneys at the end. So, they're not bad losses. If we're 27-6 at the end we're a 9 seed, 26-7 about a 10 seed, and 25-8 an 11 seed in the First Four.

[not a drake fan]

3. 19-20 would have been one of the first couple in or out had there been a tournament.

That's the most in the league showing exactly how the deck is stacked.

Yeah, I mentioned that 19-20 was borderline and I don't have an issue with including it.

A nugget I noticed today is that the MVCs average on Kenpom's luck metric is 281st which is pretty terrible for a league average. The only team that has had above average luck according to that is the Redbirds. This contributes to my belief that the league's results will trend up from here.

Bradley is dead last in luck rating. I also noticed today that Bradley a big negative discrepancy in the quality of shots taken/allowed vs their win/loss record. So kind of a double whammy there and signs that the team should be prepared for a battle Wednesday in Peoria.

[BrockLesnar]

Our D3 wins versus UDUB and Wartburg don't affect the computer numbers. So, they don't help, but they're not SWAC teams that kill the SOS. We're always stuck with D3 teams because we can't get enough A10 teams to schedule us. Plus without the D3 we would have very few home games.

[achrist70]

1) He is not a freshman
2) He wouldnt win it if he was.
3) I hope hes good

He is a freshman, the rare third year freshman, but still a freshman.