2021-22 Games of Interest Thread

[BCPanther]

Just saw there current score with Marquette. Good grief this schedule.

(Not that it matters after first two games)

In a hypothetical world where we win out for the non-con and get 14 in the league, we'd give ourselves a shot but, yeah.

Still tons to play for.

[PurpleCatFan]

Very disappointed in the Valley non conference play. They went 0-4 today. Thought we were going to have strong showing this year but outside of Drake and Loyola so far it has been very disappointing

[sevelev711]

Next year, I vote that any and all MVC hype will be postponed until December at the earliest.

[orangetennis]

Ramblers taking on Sparty today

[SteinPizza]

Ramblers taking on Sparty today

I saw the last four minutes of Loyola vs Michigan St while eating lunch. It was a slug fest. Loyola lost on a last second well executed lob/dunk by Michigan St. In crunch time, Michigan State would hit shots, and every time it felt like they might pull away enough to win. Loyola answered every time. This Loyola team seems to have the same mental toughness that Porter did a nice job of preaching. They’ll be very tough to beat in Valley play.

[Gboom23]

Valley is 2-9 since Monday (as of right now). 4 of those losses have been last minute, last possession defeats, with another being a 3OT loss. Brutal.

[not a drake fan]

Drake was down 8 to North Texas (#119) but it looks like they're going to figure it out. Rough week for them and Loyola though.

I think the Valley is going to finish with 4 top 100 or maybe even top 75 teams, which is the most it's had since 2013. But at this point I think you have to say that its a one bid league, more likely than not. Unless somebody wins a lot of games but when you're counting on that, you're not in a great spot.

[not a drake fan]

Spoke too soon, Drake and Loyola go 1-5 in their MTEs this week.

North Texas looks like a team that is better than their metrics say they are now. But when you're in this league, life's not fair and you have to win those games.

[BCPanther]

Drake and Loyola built their entire schedules around their MTEs. When you don't do well, you're screwed.

Loyola's got two bad P6 teams (DePaul and Vandy) and an okay Davidson team left. Probably not enough to get an at large unless the name helps.

Drake has a very average Clemson team and St Louis. Not enough there either. They did already beat Richmond

We've got the Bonaventure win in the bag with Liberty, Richmond and Marshall for sure as well as a chance at Stanford and BYU. If we can win those games and Vermont can stay in the Top 150, we've got a path.

[ceaser150]

The Valley is absolute garbage. We can afford maybe 3-4 more losses to stay on the bubble.

[sivert]

If we lose 1 more game (say at LUC) and then lose the Arch championship game we’ll probably just squeak in.

[CyCarp]

If we lose 1 more game (say at LUC) and then lose the Arch championship game we’ll probably just squeak in.

If we go 29-5, winning 29 of our last 31, with wins against St Bonaventure, Richmond, Stanford, BYU, Loyola and two vs Drake, we're probably an 8-9 seed.

[BCPanther]

If we go 29-5, winning 29 of our last 31, with wins against St Bonaventure, Richmond, Stanford, BYU, Loyola and two vs Drake, we're probably an 8-9 seed.

Hell, we're probably a 30ish NET in that scenario.

[sivert]

Well, I hope I get a chance to be wrong and I hope I am wrong.

[not a drake fan]

If we go 29-5, winning 29 of our last 31, with wins against St Bonaventure, Richmond, Stanford, BYU, Loyola and two vs Drake, we're probably an 8-9 seed.

So, I'm not a math major, but lets be super generous and UNI a 90% chance of winning each game from here on out. I believe that puts UNI's expected season record [D1 Games] at 28.9 - 6.1. I took your word for it that there are 31 games left.

Let's be less generous, but still quite generous, and give UNI a 75% chance of winning each game. Expected record falls to 24.25 - 10.75.

UNI went 26-5 in two years ago and that probably wasn't enough. Drake went 25-4 last year and were the last team in. To even get into the NCAA discussion, UNI/Loyola/Drake/MSU will have to do something that is very unlikely over the next couple months. Not really even worth worrying about for a while. Let's just hope they keep playing good ball for now.

The good news IMO is that the Valley is hopefully going to be stronger at the top than it has been in recent years. With [hopefully] 4 top 75 teams, there will be more Q1 and Q2 opportunities, and the pressure to put up some ridiculous record will not be as high.