Game 11: Wyoming

[BCPanther]

5:30 ESPNU.

Lost to Stanford by 3 but had a decent look at the buzzer to tie.

9-2 on the year. Really athletic.

[not a drake fan]

[not a drake fan]

I think these teams are pretty even actually. There is a big difference in the W/L records, but I would chalk most of that up to SOS differences (UNIs SOS is about 200 spots higher) and luck (a tough thing to define, but if you look at Kenpom's luck metric, Wyo is close to 300 spots higher in that).

They play a very slow game tempo-wise. They are about average in terms of experience. And they are extremely reliant on their starting 5. (#351 in bench minutes). Specifically, they lean heavily on #33, their 6'9" center who is 3rd in the country in of possessions used and 22nd in shots taken.

It's a very efficient team on offense (#55) and an average team defensively (#171). The good news for UNI IMO is that efficiency comes inside the arc. They don't shoot a lot of 3s and they don't make a high percentage of the ones they take. Shotquality.com has them at #8 offensively. Since they don't shoot a lot of 3's, I'm led to believe that they get a ton of layups/dunks. It would explain why they shoot such a high percentage inside the arc. I have not watched any of their games so I'm just guessing.

They're very lengthy - they are 7th in average height. They guard the perimeter very well. They force very few turnovers on defense which is surprising considering their length. However they don't turn it over on offense - they are #1 in the country at that.

Ken Pomeroy's computer says they will win by 1 point. My guess is that the Vegas lines will favor Wyo by a little more than that. In some ways this is not a bad matchup for UNI despite what the W/L records say.

[Mill1634]

Sucks that these games don't even matter anymore.The season has been shrunk to 3 (or 4) games in Saint Louis. Assuming both favorites win tonight, the Christmas day matchup will be pretty boring whether we win or lose tomorrow (either USF or Hawaii).

[PantherAlum09]

Sucks that these games don't even matter anymore.The season has been shrunk to 3 (or 4) games in Saint Louis. Assuming both favorites win tonight, the Christmas day matchup will be pretty boring whether we win or lose tomorrow (either USF or Hawaii).

I understand this frustration but the truth of the matter is that we are pretty much stuck to this possibility every year. It's just a product of our conference and the way NCAA views it. Yes we could've dominated non-conference and had a great regular season and lost 5 or less games and gotten in, but it is reallllllly hard to play that well consistently. You have to have multiple ways of winning (outside shooting, defense, inside game, transition play) to make up for deficiencies on any given night. We were so anxious to anoint our league as a possible 3 bid league, and I just don't see us getting past the possibility of 2 until we add some higher quality teams.

This team has to improve so many parts. Cole Henry has to become more of a factor on offense. Tytan needs to continue to develop offensively. This team has to figure out what to do when AJ doesn't have it. Heise is a very solid player and I love his game, but he isn't a "takeover and get his own shot" guy. They have to have better closeouts and rotations on defense every game. It sounds like the guys are fighting an illness, but the defense is ultimately what killed them today. Iowa State is a prime example this year of how far consistently great defense can take you. Even if you don't have it offensively, you can keep yourself in every game.

[BCPanther]

I think we're still shell shocked from A&M which is kind of annoying because there aren't any guys left from that team.

It's like we get a lead and just expect bad things to happen. I don't remember the last time that we were able to extend a lead against a good team.

Just once I want that 10 point lead to go to 18-20 instead of knowing that we're going to turn it over twice, they're going to hit two 3s and then get an and-1 on a stupid foul and the lead is gone.

We can't play from behind constantly.

[BrockLesnar]

Yeah, it's probably, another hard to stomach game. Tough turn around too. Probably, another loss, but I think we get a W on Chirstmas. USF and Hawaii are bad teams.

[unipanther2154]

I think we're still shell shocked from A&M which is kind of annoying because there aren't any guys left from that team.

It's like we get a lead and just expect bad things to happen. I don't remember the last time that we were able to extend a lead against a good team.

Just once I want that 10 point lead to go to 18-20 instead of knowing that we're going to turn it over twice, they're going to hit two 3s and then get an and-1 on a stupid foul and the lead is gone.

We can't play from behind constantly.

I want to start by making it clear I’m not calling you out specifically (as this has been said by many, many people) but the notion that A&M plays any part in the minds of these players is absolutely absurd and for me it’s as annoying as p100 posting his nonsense all the time. We had a epic collapse, this is true. But please, how many NBA, College, and other levels is basketball do you see a team have a 10, 15, or 20 point lead slip away? It happens often, and it’s really not all that surprising. From a physiological perspective you start to ease up and relax. Also, the law of averages is a thing for a reason. Sometimes teams will stay hot or stay cold for a game but normally (on average) your numbers tend to come back to the median. So if you start hot shooting you will tend to come back to earth. Of course there are exceptions for every rule. The only people this Texas A&M game effect are the fans. You could maybe argue it could change how Jacobson’s coaching and say it still impacts what he does. It literally has zero impact on the guys who are playing the game and it never will.

[CyCarp]

I want to start by making it clear I’m not calling you out specifically (as this has been said by many, many people) but the notion that A&M plays any part in the minds of these players is absolutely absurd and for me it’s as annoying as p100 posting his nonsense all the time. We had a epic collapse, this is true. But please, how many NBA, College, and other levels is basketball do you see a team have a 10, 15, or 20 point lead slip away? It happens often, and it’s really not all that surprising. From a physiological perspective you start to ease up and relax. Also, the law of averages is a thing for a reason. Sometimes teams will stay hot or stay cold for a game but normally (on average) your numbers tend to come back to the median. So if you start hot shooting you will tend to come back to earth. Of course there are exceptions for every rule. The only people this Texas A&M game effect are the fans. You could maybe argue it could change how Jacobson’s coaching and say it still impacts what he does. It literally has zero impact on the guys who are playing the game and it never will.

Agreed. I think it's just something about the way Jake coaches. We almost blew the Kansas game in similar fashion. I'm certain there were other games before that too. This didn't start with A&M.

[BCPanther]

I want to start by making it clear I’m not calling you out specifically (as this has been said by many, many people) but the notion that A&M plays any part in the minds of these players is absolutely absurd and for me it’s as annoying as p100 posting his nonsense all the time. We had a epic collapse, this is true. But please, how many NBA, College, and other levels is basketball do you see a team have a 10, 15, or 20 point lead slip away? It happens often, and it’s really not all that surprising. From a physiological perspective you start to ease up and relax. Also, the law of averages is a thing for a reason. Sometimes teams will stay hot or stay cold for a game but normally (on average) your numbers tend to come back to the median. So if you start hot shooting you will tend to come back to earth. Of course there are exceptions for every rule. The only people this Texas A&M game effect are the fans. You could maybe argue it could change how Jacobson’s coaching and say it still impacts what he does. It literally has zero impact on the guys who are playing the game and it never will.

This is 1000% fair and, for me at least, a good step outside to look at it more objectively.

Let up isn't the right term for what happens when we get a lead but it's like the intensity drops, especially when we're playing good teams.

[A Fan In Lean Years]

Agreed. I think it's just something about the way Jake coaches. We almost blew the Kansas game in similar fashion. I'm certain there were other games before that too. This didn't start with A&M.

Couldn't have, given the fact he's won two games in 15 years.

[BCPanther]

The NET is such a great ranking system that today would be a Quad 1 win.

Makes sense because Wyoming is obviously the 32nd best team in the country.

[PantherAlum09]

I hope the guys look a little more refreshed today. The defense has to be so much better. To play as poorly as they have in a few of these games and not just get throttled is actually impressive. I thought yesterday was going to turn into a 20 point loss, but this team does hang around better than previous teams.

I just want to see better defense more than anything else. If they start hitting some shots, that would be nice as well.

[A Fan In Lean Years]

This is goan be an epic spankin!

[kochrab]

A win here would be huge. I cannot imagine how de-motivating it is to go all the way to Hawaii and squander away any wins at all. That said, keep improving and let's play some Panther basketball. It's been a streaky season already, can only go up!