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The way I see it, Loyola was genuinely a good team in the 2018 NCAA tournament. Probably about a 6 or 8 seed. in order to get to the final four, they were VERY lucky.
First, the top 1,2,4 seeds lost. Very fortunate.
Second, when they played the 6, 3, 7, and 9 seeds, three of those games they won by 1 or 2 points. All down to the wire and really 50/50 games. The last (9 seed Kstate) they took over and won by 16. That game could have been against Virginia, Arizona, or maybe Kentucky.
They pulled out 3 50/50 games. Then they got a win that based on their dominance let’s give them a 75% chance of winning. But that win was made possible by super unlikely losses. Let’s say only a 20% chance of the top four seeds losing in the first two rounds of a region.
Just looking at what happened in the dance, their chances of doing that were probably about 2%.
Then add that to get in, they beat a 16-16 UNI team by 4 points in the MVC that year. They got VERY LUCKY in 2018 and I was and am SUPER HAPPY for them.
First, the top 1,2,4 seeds lost. Very fortunate.
Second, when they played the 6, 3, 7, and 9 seeds, three of those games they won by 1 or 2 points. All down to the wire and really 50/50 games. The last (9 seed Kstate) they took over and won by 16. That game could have been against Virginia, Arizona, or maybe Kentucky.
They pulled out 3 50/50 games. Then they got a win that based on their dominance let’s give them a 75% chance of winning. But that win was made possible by super unlikely losses. Let’s say only a 20% chance of the top four seeds losing in the first two rounds of a region.
Just looking at what happened in the dance, their chances of doing that were probably about 2%.
Then add that to get in, they beat a 16-16 UNI team by 4 points in the MVC that year. They got VERY LUCKY in 2018 and I was and am SUPER HAPPY for them.
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