Bracketology

[MNpanthers]

UNI is 28th in the initial NCAA NET rankings. Great start for us.

This seems encouraging, but are we basically starting at our ceiling? Hard to imagine any of our remaining schedule is gonna push us any higher, while any loss will drop us a ways

[Wxcpanther]

This seems encouraging, but are we basically starting at our ceiling? Hard to imagine any of our remaining schedule is gonna push us any higher, while any loss will drop us a ways

Bigger key is how wins like Northern Illinois, ODU, GCU, and South Carolina age. They all 4 have potential to jump up a quad or two.

[enkamania]

Bigger key is how wins like Northern Illinois, ODU, GCU, and South Carolina age. They all 4 have potential to jump up a quad or two.

Old Dominion is at #162, could move to 160 for a quad 3 win. Grand Canyon is #249, could move to #240 for a quad 3 win. South Carolina moving to #100 for a quad 2 win and Northern Illinois moving to #135 for a quad 3 win are less likely.

[BCPanther]

I'll be shocked if GCU doesn't get there for us. With the transfers that are eligible at Christmas, they're going to win a lot of WAC games.

[clenz]

I'll be shocked if GCU doesn't get there for us. With the transfers that are eligible at Christmas, they're going to win a lot of WAC games.

I can't see them getting to NMSU but I'd be pretty shocked if they finish worse than 3rd.

Right now Cal Baptist is "2nd" and their wins are real real real bad.
Bakersfield is "3rd" and they have 3 non D1 wins and Hampton (320 in the computers) sitting at 4-8
Seattle would be the only other team i think would push them for second but their wins are 2 non D1 and 254, 321, 336, 226

The WAC is real bad and I really think GCU and NMSU will separate themselves and avoid those bad losses to hurt their rank moving forward

[UNIAlum2010]

This seems encouraging, but are we basically starting at our ceiling? Hard to imagine any of our remaining schedule is gonna push us any higher, while any loss will drop us a ways

We are not at the ceiling at all. As some have mentioned how teams our opponents (especially non-con) perform the rest of the season matters.

Also, margin of victory does matter.

NET does include scoring margin 2 of the 5 inputs as well. Team value index, winning % and adjusted win % does not include margin of victory but net efficiency and scoring margin do.

Directly in the scoring margin it is capped at 10 points.
Indirectly the net efficiency is not capped. It is offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency = net efficiency.

So while winning is the most important our score can certainly go higher by winning games by wider margins. We will likely drop if we are winning MVC games by a point or have a bad night and lose by a bunch. We will go up if we absolutely demolish teams. We don't have any sort of ceiling just because the bulk of our difficult schedule is done already.

[GonzoCat]

I don't know anything about NET, but I think it is safe to assume it was designed to somehow give a bigger edge to P5 teams than the RPI did. Way too many so called mid major schools getting too high in the RPI in the old days, not that it necessarily gave them a shot at the tourney. Always many other factors to consider such as the old "eye test".

[sivert]

I don’t think it gives an edge to P5s.
The RPI gave points for winning, and a road win was better than neutral, which was better than a home win.
And it gave points for playing teams that win a lot of games - and against teams that win a lot.
All that means that two things were “punished” by the RPI: playing at home and playing cupcakes.
Destroying a cupcake at home was mathematically far worse than beating a Q2/3 team on the road.
And destroying cupcakes is exactly what P5s want to do in their preseason. They pay them $50k, collect big ticket and TV $$, and give their new one-and-done freshmen some scrimmage level practice.

P5s didn’t hate the RPI because they could not figure out how to schedule to have a better RPI. They prefer NET because they can make their $$$ from home cupcakes and get a ranking benefit from MOV and efficiency margin.

[MNpanthers]

So far, NET is being more generous to the valley than RPI, by an average 22 spots.

It's being particularly generous to Loyola (88 spots higher), MSU (57 spots higher), Bradley (51 spots higher), ISUr (52 spots higher).

The only wildly strange exception is Indiana State. They are RPI#39 compared to NET#85.

Curious to see how that changes over the season as we enter conference play. Not sure how that played out last year, wasn't fun to follow during a down year.

[squeezebox]

It doesn't sound good, but has anyone heard anything about Jaylen Fisher for GCU? He's the transfer from TCU sitting out the first semester due to grades. He could certainly be a game changer.

[Leatherhelmet]

Wow I didn’t know that is where Fisher went. If he makes his grades he and that Mikey Dixon will really help them.

[PantherFan]

Palm has us as an 8th seed in Omaha.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[BCPanther]

Palm has us as an 8th seed in Omaha.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Too bad Jerry Palm is just awful at what he does.

To be fair, most I've seen have us solidly in and in at large territory. Gotta figure out how to win 15 league games.

[enkamania]

Too bad Jerry Palm is just awful at what he does.

To be fair, most I've seen have us solidly in and in at large territory. Gotta figure out how to win 15 league games.

If you look at the Bracket Matrix standings, Palm is #85 and Lunardi is #55. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html