Game 6: UNI @ Bradley

[06panther10]

This is where I'm at. A lot of people blame the offense though, and I think we can be pretty sure that the issues have been coming at the defensive end.

From 2007-2016, UNI had an average Kenpom of 73. That is just outstanding for a mid-major with our resources, fan support, and geographic location. Ben Jacobson was the only thing that had UNI punching above its weight for so long. He has earned the right to try to figure this out, and I think there are signs that he is really trying to do that.

I think UNI is on the right track on offense and people just need to be patient, as hard as that is. It should be easier now that At-Large Elimination Day came early for UNI.

Things got really ugly before Tuttle brought that new offense in. The game really changed in the last 10 years and UNI fell behind with the offensive style that used to work. Post-A&M, and before Tuttle, the O looked like this:
2017 - Offensive Efficiency: 295
2018 - Offensive Efficiency: 205

2019, the first year of the new offense also rough as they worked out kinks (#235), but they really hit their stride in year two. Efficiency went all the way up to #23.

2020 was rough with AJ's injury, but the efficiency only fell to #155, which is still a lot better than the post A&M dark days. This year, it sits at #101, and I think we all would like it to be better. But the year is still young and those first two games were a killer. And remember that Kenpom's numbers are still being anchored by last year's AJ-less squad. This year should end as a top 50 or top 75 offense.

Last night was tough to watch, but UNI didn't lose because of the offense. They lost because they gave up 71 points to a team that is #227 in tempo.

UNI's shot quality ranking on offense from the last 3 years: 60, 134, 64. The shot quality allowed on defense: 72, 168, 320 (yikes).

For reasons that I don't understand, we do a terrible job of defending the arc. UNI's average ranking in 3 point percentage allowed is 214 under Ben Jacobson. UNI is has been consistently bad at defending the arc for Ben's entire time here. The modern game, for NBA teams and analytically driven college teams, is all about defending the arc and the rim. I believe that this pack-line defense that UNI has run for so long has got to go, correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that is the opposite of what UNI should be trying to do. The best teams in basketball now are the ones that get to the rim and get good looks from 3.

UNI's Rim & 3 Rate on offense, in the past 3 years btw has gone from 78% to 81% to 84%. The signs of effort by Jake and improvement by the team are there, its just hard to see right now. UNI is not spinning its wheels and doing the same thing over and over again (like the football team is doing). I believe that Jake will figure this out, and I definitely believe that giving him the chance is our best hope.

I think UNI is doing the right things, at least on offense, but it's hard to see right now because of AJ's hip injury, the tough schedule this year (#21 NCSOS) and some tough luck (Kenpom's luck metric had UNI at #229 last year and #322 this year). UNI's opponents so far have particularly been tough on the defensive end (26th in Defensive SOS). I think it's time to revamp that defense. Maybe the answer in the modern game is just to figure out a way to recruit better athletes (that's where Cedar Falls and being in a small state with 4 D1 programs makes it tough). I believe that the slow tempo, defensive slugfest style that UNI ran for so long probably did not help in this area, so maybe things will get better there too.

Great post with the numbers to back it up.

I completely agree with you in regards to our main issue being on the defensive end.

I also am actually offended with how seemingly lost and confused our team seems to be considering how much experience we have. Too many 3rd 4th and even 5th year guys for this to be acceptable.

I dont necessarily agree with your saying we need to change our defensive philosophy necessarily. Virginia runs a similar D and they won the National Title 2 years ago and have consistently been a top program. I do agree we need to guard the 3 much better. I just can’t comprehend how a veteran team like this could be this poor defensively.

[not a drake fan]

I dont necessarily agree with your saying we need to change our defensive philosophy necessarily. Virginia runs a similar D and they won the National Title 2 years ago and have consistently been a top program. I do agree we need to guard the 3 much better. I just can’t comprehend how a veteran team like this could be this poor defensively.

So I don't really know anything about basketball. I didn't play; I haven't sat through a bunch of coaching clinics. I like looking at things from an analytics perspective, but I recognize that analytics aren't everything and the best teams in sports are the ones that are able to strike a good balance.

Perhaps the pack-line isn't the problem, I have no idea. All I know is defending the arc has become increasingly critical in basketball and UNI has done a very bad job with it for Jake's entire tenure.

UNI's NCAA rank in defending the arc starting this year and going back to 2007: 251, 190, 211, 163, 280, 276, 56, 66, 274, 218, 523, 318, 122, 218, 269, 261. Virginia, which runs a similar style, is typically in the top 50 in that stat. So what is Virginia doing that UNI is not doing? I have no idea, I would have to listen to the people who know basketball on that.

I highlighted two outliers there above, btw, those are the 2015 & 2016 squads. I doubt UNI was doing anything different stylistically those years. It was probably just that they had Wes Washpun and Jeremy Morgan out there guarding guys on the perimeter.

I will also point out that Virginia's defense has been pretty bad on the perimeter the last two years. 3 point percentage allowed has been 127th and 182nd. Is this because the style is starting to show age, or has it just been because of personnel issues on the roster? IDK but that is what I would be asking.

[BCPanther]

The 3 point line moved back. More area to cover for teams that aren't built to do it. Leads to more open shots.

[CyCarp]

I'm just mind boggled at this team. Is this offense difficult to learn? Yep, but we lost nobody of last years team and only added the conference POY who's in his 4th year with the program. These guys don't completely forget how to run the offense over the summer. It might not be crystal clear right away, but they've had weeks, if not a couple months of practice at this point. You could make a real good arguement that this is one of the most talented teams we've ever seen and very experienced - the underclassmen all played a lot of minutes last year, one was the Valley FOTY. To me, this is 100% undoubtedly all coaching. I don't know what the problem is, but this team has talent and experience imo, there's no reason we should be where we are right now.

[BCPanther]

Jake revealed on his show tonight that Phyfe is suffering from Long COVID.

Doesn't know what he's going to be able to do from day to day and never seems to know how his lungs and conditioning are going to be from day to day. Sat out the 2nd half last night because he was having trouble keeping his breath.

[PantherAlum09]

Jake revealed on his show tonight that Phyfe is suffering from Long COVID.

Doesn't know what he's going to be able to do from day to day and never seems to know how his lungs and conditioning are going to be from day to day. Sat out the 2nd half last night because he was having trouble keeping his breath.

Well that's awful on a much more significant front than basketball.

[BrockLesnar]

It's hard to live let alone play basketball with this virus. Just more terrible news. Our schedule due to Covid protocol could change due to postponements etc. The future looks dark. Hard to know where it will end.

[A Fan In Lean Years]

If he was only a football player...

[hoopfan]

Pickford needed to be on the floor for that last possession. You weren't getting a great look offensively no matter what happened there. I understand that he left Henry because he was worried about a putback but that would have been a lot easier to stomach.

Pickford along with Tytan and Kimmons have to be on the floor. Like you said, Bradley was taking the last shot so it doesn't matter if you have any offensive firepower on the floor. Just get the game to overtime and figure it out from there. Given how the middle 20 minutes of that game went, OT would have been a moral victory. Hell, come out and show a man look and switch to zone once the ball is inbounds. With 13 seconds left you may confuse Bradley enough they don't get into a set and force something up.

Interested to see what team shows up on Sunday. Trae's been non-existent other than the Arkansas game. Need Phyfe to get healthy. Henry is a fancy ball-handler with all of his behind the back stuff, but he's not a threat to score. Best way to describe this team so far is confusing.

[BrockLesnar]

I would foresee Henry, Carter, and Betz in the post. Assuming we're playing. I'm not sure if COVID protocol will allow the Richmond game on Sunday?

[SteinPizza]

I would foresee Henry, Carter, and Betz in the post. Assuming we're paying. I'm not sure if COVID protocol will allow the Richmond game on Sunday?

Is the protocol even in effect? Not sure long Covid is even contagious. I’ve known a couple of people who had it or something similar. My impression was it’s a longer term experience with the symptoms, after the virus itself is long gone. I could easily be wrong so someone correct me if so.

[Flip20]

It’s been a while since I’ve seen a local article highlighting the lack of progress of the team…as much as I love Jake, it really is unacceptable to be making 1m per year (in Cedar Falls) and the mens program be on the opposite side of the spectrum here, especially with all the upper class men and talent on this roster…

https://wcfcourier.com/sports/basketball/college/uni-men-women-basketball-teams-looking-drastically-different-from-one-another/article_d16936d8-4e2f-57e0-bff5-54f7d18d7b3e.html

[UNIAlum95]

Is the protocol even in effect? Not sure long Covid is even contagious. I’ve known a couple of people who had it or something similar. My impression was it’s a longer term experience with the symptoms, after the virus itself is long gone. I could easily be wrong so someone correct me if so.

This. Long Covid is the hangover from having covid. My daughter is 9 months into long covid with her taste all messed up where food flavors have changed to a revolting taste. Its not covid, its the long term side effects.

[Born-a-Panther]

This. Long Covid is the hangover from having covid. My daughter is 9 months into long covid with her taste all messed up where food flavors have changed to a revolting taste. Its not covid, its the long term side effects.

Correct. It's not an active case. He is eligible to play. Who knows when Austin actually had it. I know several people who are having longterm Covid side effects. It doesn't sound fun and is definitely life altering with no real way of knowing when/how it will improve. One friend from college has been through the RINGER with long Covid and has had to go through months of regular therapy and medical support to get back to work even.

[BCPanther]

Correct. It's not an active case. He is eligible to play. Who knows when Austin actually had it. I know several people who are having longterm Covid side effects. It doesn't sound fun and is definitely life altering with no real way of knowing when/how it will improve. One friend from college has been through the RINGER with long Covid and has had to go through months of regular therapy and medical support to get back to work even.

Austin's COVID was mid to late summer per Jake last night and happened between his first and second shots. Just horrific luck.