Will you feel sorry for Mo. State if they don't get in?

[Panthers to the Bone]

If the RPI isn't a tool, then how do you judge between teams?
"Oh, they beat UConn this year...they must be good."
"So, Florida State beat Duke? Put them in the 8 seed."

If they say they don't use it, then why does the NCAA continue to come out with weekly 'NCAA RPI ratings' like they do? Of course they use it...they may not go down the line 1-40 and put those teams in it, but for 95% of the time, it's amazing that if you are in the top 40 RPI, you make the NCAA tournament.

Must be a coincedence all these years (and I'm not specifically stating last year...I'm talking about this in a historical point of view).

[jman2004]

I totally agree with both of you, I'm just saying that the committee has stated that in many of their discussions in the past, RPI hasn't even come up. That's all. Whether they're lying or not, is not my problem. It's what they say.

I happen to like the RPI and think it's a great organizational tool. All I'm saying is that the committee claims they don't look at it as much when selecting the tournament field.

[morrism0]

Great conversation guys, here is a sample sheet (UCLA)that the committee looks at on Sunday. They sort by RPI but look at the highlights that are on the sheet, primarily road records. Seth Davis from SI has a pretty good article about the process.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...hts/index.html

[Newsbreaker]

I'm going to say again what I've said in the past on this subject.

Correlation does not equal causality.

Just because every team with and RPI of "X" and a record of "Y" has gotten in in the past does NOT mean that was WHY they got in.

[GonzoCat]

It's the only objective measure they have, I hope they use it to a fairly large extent. Otherwise we're left with the committee just going with their "gut feel", which is how you end up with all BCS schools and no other conference teams getting at large invites to the tourney.

They came up with the RPI concept to avoid just that, to say they don't use it now is nonsense. It's like saying they don't look at conferences, only teams. Right. Not that they won't go ahead and screw a team or two every year (see MSU 2006), but there is at least a significant element of objectivity in the process now thanks to the RPI.

[UNI MadCat]

I hear a lot of "money hungry NCAA/CBS" type comments on this board and other mid-major boards and I have to question it a bit. In the last three years the number of at-large bids coming from non-BCS school is over 25%. Now that might not seem like a lot but remember too that with the exception of last year and the MVC finishing 6th (over the Pac 10, 7th), the BCS schools hold the top spots in conference ratings every year.

Just like we don't think the comittee should select a school just because they are from BCS Conf X, it isn't right that we think more midmajors should be selected just because they are midmajors (or better yet, assume they were left out solely because of midmajor status -- yes, that has something to do with that but more to the point, their status as a midmajor contributes to other factors that lower their overall "grade" and "status" for entry like SOS).

It seems like the comittee would be scolded on midmajor boards if they admitted the honest truth -- the BCS conferences are typically better than the midmajor conferences. Yes, at times the "midmajor" conferences can compete and succeed, but the BCS conferences don't fluctuate very much (besides within their own rank).

I'm sorry but you can't really get past that. They are 99% of the time ranked higher conference-wise so, inherently, their schools under consideration are ranked higher because of it.

Honestly, how often have the mid-majors been "screwed"?? Honestly?? Last year -- MSU. That's really about it. Hofstra had a SOS around 280... i think its pretty obvious why they were left out. Beyond that, I would argue that in years where midmajors supposedly got "screwed", in the same year you could find an example where there was an iffy selection of a midmajor (see Air Force last year and 2004 + other examples). I don't think that's the worst track record for the comittee. Sure, it sucks that it came at the expense of an MVC team, but, sh!t happens.

Just my 2-cents on the overgeneralizations that seem to pop about the comittee's perogative's in selecting the tourney. For the most part, I feel they are typically pretty fair and balanced. Where they really suck is seeding within the field. That's a whole different story.

[Panthers to the Bone]

http://valleytalk.net/showthread.php?t=4095

"According to the archives available at collegerpi.com, 147 teams have won at least 20 games against a top 20 strength of schedule since 1994-94 and all 147 teams have advanced to the NCAA Tournament."

The highest never taken is 29. Bradley's SOS is 20.

[jman2004]

I honestly do hope Bradley is in. With their shooting I do think they could do a little damage early on and surprise some folks. Plus, they've earned it, maybe more so than Missouri State.

[merkpanthers]

I really think that both Missouri State and Bradley should be in the big dance, but looking at all of the conference tournament upsets that are happening I really think that the MVC is only going to get 2 teams into the NCAA's which is a travesty. That means that the Panthers will be sitting at home watching all of the basketball games. I really hope I'm wrong, but let's hope that the committee will recognize the strength of the MVC and at least put 3 teams in if not 4. However, thinking hindsight I only think we get 2 at this point, but I really hope I'm wrong with this gut feeling.

[panther2317]

Can Bradley be in over Missouri State? The Bears beat the Braves twice. MSU is cleary the 3rd best team in the Valley. Just an opinion though.

[DancerHall Cat]

I dont think Bradley is even a serious consideration at this point. As the weekend goes on, it is looking more and more like MSU will get left out again as well.

[panther2317]

I can't believe I'm going to type this Dancer Hall Cat...but I think you're right. I hope PTTB's research ("According to the archives available at collegerpi.com, 147 teams have won at least 20 games against a top 20 strength of schedule since 1994-94 and all 147 teams have advanced to the NCAA Tournament.") means that history will repeat itself again this season and Bradley and/or Missouri State gets a shot as an at-large...but it's looking a little shaky right now.

[jman2004]

Never mind, I was reading their RPI's wrong. For some reason I thought Bradley had a much, much higher RPI than Missouri State. I totally agree, if a third team gets in, it should be Missouri State, even though I'd love to see them both.

I've said before though, if they both get snubbed, there go our chances of an NIT birth. I was excited about the possibility, but looking back over our endingn of a season, if you take away our win at Bradley, do we even deserve an NIT bid?

[jman2004]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=58

Probably all seen the recent bubble watch, but reading this makes me think MO St. doesn't really even have a chance. 1-7 against top competition. That Wisconsin win was really their only win. They played SIU and Creighton five times and couldn't pull out a victory even once.

I don't know. Looking at the overall picture of their season, I just don't think they have enough big wins.

Plus with a few conference tourney upsets, the field is just plain running out of room.

[jman2004]

If they don't get in, leaving the Valley with 2 bids, there should be an investigation.

TWO bids, while the freaking COLONIAL and Mountain West get THREE? Sorry, no way.

However take a look at the top four colonial teams. VCU, Old Dom, Hofstra, and Drexel. They've all got pretty good resumés. I just don't think the Valley took care of business when they had the opportunites. A couple more wins on BracketBuster weekend and we could be singing a different tune, but even the fourth best Colonial team took care of our conference winner on Creighton's home floor.

Personally, I think VCU, Old Dom, and Drexel, the three that will probably get in, are all pretty deserving. I'd be more upset if a team like Air Force, West Virginia, Florida State, or Kansas State took away a bid from a more deserving team.