Game 17: Valpo

[Username]

This team has 3 guys that can go get 30 which isn't something that may have never been had before

If this team can get to the tournament..... I certainly wouldn't want to be on the other side

[not a drake fan]

Probably has something to do with what Jake is thinking about on the defensive end lately.

1.07 points per possession on offense yesterday, not great but good enough to get a W. 1.11 given up on defense which is step back.

Noah was an absolute monster yesterday. 168 offensive rating on Kenpom, I believe that is the highest we've seen from any UNI player or opponent on the year. 5-6 from inside the arc, 6-11 from outside. 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 0 turnovers. That guy stepped up in a big way.

I've seen several Vaplo games, not all, but that is the best effort they've put forward that I've seen. They were awesome yesterday. The win probability chart from the gave was interesting, it got up to 92% chance of a UNI W with 10 minutes left. Went all the way in the other direction to Vaplo having a 96% chance with a 1:30 left. And in OT it got up to UNI/78%. The 33rd highest Excitement Score Kenpom has had in college basketball this year.

[Schack]

I know it varies from year to year but how many wins are usually needed to stay out of Thursday?

[BrockLesnar]

I know it varies from year to year but how many wins are usually needed to stay out of Thursday?

Just a guess.

14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13.
So, 9-9 for #6.

[BCPanther]

I know it varies from year to year but how many wins are usually needed to stay out of Thursday?

That's not even a discussion worth having. We're 5-2 and tied for 2nd place (with the tiebreaker) in a league that's already got separation. Thursday night is going to be the Indiana Schools plus Illinois State.

[BCPanther]

Just a guess.

14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13.

Bold prediction that the league goes 95-85 against itself. Bold.

[not a drake fan]

I know it varies from year to year but how many wins are usually needed to stay out of Thursday?

I've kept an Excel chart on this.

Since UNI joined the league, 10 wins is enough to escape Drake night 100% of the time. 9 wins, you're safe 87% of the time. 8 wins, 60%. 7 wins, 20%. 6 wins would have been enough just once, in 2006.

Why do they call it Drake night? Because Drake has been in the bottom 4 of the standings 76% of the time since UNI joined the league.

[Schack]

I've kept an Excel chart on this.

Since UNI joined the league, 10 wins is enough to escape Drake night 100% of the time. 9 wins, you're safe 87% of the time. 8 wins, 60%. 7 wins, 20%. 6 wins would have been enough just once, in 2006.

Why do they call it Drake night? Because Drake has been in the bottom 4 of the standings 76% of the time since UNI joined the league.

Thanks, exactly the info I was looking for.

[UNIpanther99]

Why do they call it Drake night? Because Drake has been in the bottom 4 of the standings 76% of the time since UNI joined the league.

Love it... You could also call Thursday night the Kurt Kanaskie Invitational.

[Wxcpanther]

I'm puzzled as to why we've seen so little of Henry since the MSU game. I get it that Noah has been on a tear but are those two mutually exclusive?

Noah is at his best playing the 5, Austin is going to take up the remaining minutes at the 5. They got creative last night because of no AJ. Cole was playing well at beginning of the year, but also was occasionally sloppy with the basketball. I expected the more he played the better that would get, it actually went the other way. Noah had 5 assists to no turnovers last night. He's the guy at that spot.

[UNI Ka-Bullseye]

Our best player is out. Another guy steps up and scores 33 points. Then he gets a cramp just bad enough to keep him out of OT. I mean you just can’t write this crap. The amount of nonsense this program has dealt with in the last 5 years is nuts.

Don’t forget arguably our best defender in Pickford came up lame in OT as well.

Best 2 offensive players and best defender out in OT and we have a good shot in the air to tie it… stinks it didn’t fall but hard to blame anyone for that one.

[BCPanther]

Don’t forget arguably our best defender in Pickford came up lame in OT as well.

Best 2 offensive players and best defender out in OT and we have a good shot in the air to tie it… stinks it didn’t fall but hard to blame anyone for that one.

And we get there against a team that just took Loyola to Double OT in Chicago.

Can we be done with the 'adversity' part of this movie?

[Hacksaw]

I know it varies from year to year but how many wins are usually needed to stay out of Thursday?

The MVC tournament switched to a 10-team format in 1997, so we've had 25 years of 10-team tournament data through 2021.
At 6-12, there have been 16 occurrences and all played in the opening round (wasn't always on Thursday).
At 7-11, there have been 25 occurrences and 84% played the opening round.
At 8-10, there have been 23 occurrences and 52% played the opening round.
At 9-9, there have been 31 occurrences and 13% played the opening round.
At 10-8, there have been 21 occurrences and none played the opening round.

Also, through 7 games there have been 33 occurrences of teams that are 5-2 during the past 25 years. The tournament seed distribution for those teams is:
1 - 18%
2 - 15%
3 - 15%
4 - 18%
5 - 15%
6 - 6%
7 - 9%
8 - 0%
9 - 3%
10 - 0%

[BrockLesnar]

Bold prediction that the league goes 95-85 against itself. Bold.

Yeah, I wouldn't give a fat rat's a$$ about your picticulars. Sixth place will be 9-9.

[sevelev711]

The MVC tournament switched to a 10-team format in 1997, so we've had 25 years of 10-team tournament data through 2021.
At 6-12, there have been 16 occurrences and all played in the opening round (wasn't always on Thursday).
At 7-11, there have been 25 occurrences and 84% played the opening round.
At 8-10, there have been 23 occurrences and 52% played the opening round.
At 9-9, there have been 31 occurrences and 13% played the opening round.
At 10-8, there have been 21 occurrences and none played the opening round.

Also, through 7 games there have been 33 occurrences of teams that are 5-2 during the past 25 years. The tournament seed distribution for those teams is:
1 - 18%
2 - 15%
3 - 15%
4 - 18%
5 - 15%
6 - 6%
7 - 9%
8 - 0%
9 - 3%
10 - 0%

thanks mr cool spreadsheet guy