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Class of 2019 - Football Recruits

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  • Based upon the 4 qbs we have, it just seeems like one of these four doesn’t belong. Three of the four appear to be more pro-style. Given Farley’s love for Keller and his athleticism, does he end camp in the QB room?

    Comment


    • Honestly, McElvain is the odd one out when you really look at that QB room.

      But...

      Keller was a D1 basketball recruit. Jake needs to have a chat with him .
      GO PANTHERS!!!!!!!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by clenz View Post

        Honestly, I don't know between Fomby and Martens. It's tough to judge. Martens there is much more tape on. He was a 3 year starter. We can see the insane development he went through from a Sophomore to a Senior. Marten's senior season stats show a QB more developed in reading defenses and making the right decisions
        Games Comp Att Comp% Yards Avg/C YPG TD INT Rtg
        Fomby 9 149 254 58.7% 1,502 10.1 166.9 13 13 71.3
        Martens 12 118 184 64.1% 2001 16.9 166.5 22 6 131
        Marten's also showed more ability to make plays when the pocket broke down

        105 carries for 324 yards and 5 TD compared to 40 carries for 72 yards for Fomby (about 20 of which come on one play in his highlight film).

        It's tough to go off of just stats. Fomby's stats this year are almost identical to Martens's stats his first year starting as a sophomore. I have no idea what level of competition they faced. I do know Fomby plays in a very talent right area of Atlanta, and had 3 or 4 P5 kids on his team with him this year. Fomby clearly played in a more pass heavy system. Martens threw more than 20 passes just once and had a game he threw just 6 passes...granted he completed 4 of them for 113 yards and 3 of those were TDs.

        Watching the film is also clear that Martens has multiple years starting experience under his belt. You can just "sense" it watching the film.

        I've mentioned before, but the film on Martens feels like I'm watching Easton Stick. No, I'm not saying he's that level. I'm saying that's the feel I get from watching him. The way Easton was able to control a game throwing, with the ability to catch other teams napping with the feet. There's a reason he held ACC, AAC and MAC offers. He's built like a "program" QB. He's smart enough to graduate HS in 3.5 years and enroll at UNI early. That's going to give him a big advantage over Fomby having spring ball to work with the returning WRs all spring.

        Fomby's film shows a kid that has a very strong arm. There is a zip on the ball that isn't there with Martens right now. It shows a QB that doesn't really panic when the first read isn't there - beyond the second it looks to get shaky (which is normal for a HS qb in the first year starting). There is a reason Mizzou gave him an offer at one point (though I can't confirm it was a QB offer). There's a reason the entire Sun Belt wanted him. He won all kinds of awards at camps he went too. There's clearly something there. There are those that are convinced if he had another year or two as a starter in HS he would be a P5 kid.

        Based on the little film we, as fans, have to watch I still lean Martens. I think he's much more college ready right now, based on what we can see (which is only part of the story). I think Fomby's floor is probably higher than Martens floor, but we know Nate isn't at his floor. He's developed pretty far above his floor and took a MASSIVE stride his senior season.

        I still think it's Martens opening the season in Jack Trice on August 31st. The only advantage Keller and McElvain have is they have gone through a season in the QB room, which is now largely negated because Bond is gone. The OC and QB coach is gone. All new QB coach, that has no existing relationship. New OC that has no existing relationship. Coupled with Martens being on campus and getting to go through all of the spring practices, meetings and drills. It's also worth nothing that the person that is the reason Fomby is on campus is Mahaffey. Fomby had no contact with UNI before Ryan was hired back. All of a sudden the new OC (Mahaffey) and QB coach (Roper) show up and within 2 weeks Fomby gets and offer, commits, and signs.

        I think size hold Will back. The thing that was touched on with Fomby and Martens was size. Ability to see the field. They average 6'4 220lbs. Will is 5'10 170. The OL moving forward will average 6'4-6'5 305+. Eric Sanders isn't walking through that door again. 5'10-5'11 QBs at the FCS level that play at the level UNI is going to need don't really happen. If Will was 6'2 or 6'3 he's probably the starter - he's also probably at Iowa State on scholarship

        I think going into JTS all 4 QBs dress and travel. I think the depth chart goes

        1. Martens
        2. Keller/McElvain
        4. Fomby

        From there it shakes out a bit more but that's my uneducated guess based on reading and highlight film
        Thanks Clenz. This is going to be really interesting to watch. Also, don’t get too down on whoever starts if they have a bad first couple of games (the board in general, not Clenz specifically). If it’s Martens or Fomby, the learning curve is big. I agree that Martens going thru spring ball gives him a nice start. Iowa St has a bunch of guys back on D, so that’s a tough game for whoever starts.

        One thing about Fomby. Coming from Georgia, that’s some SERIOUS high school football. Nothing against St Louis or the Des Moines metro area, but if a kid puts up numbers and stands out in Georgia he’s damn good. It’s similar to Florida and Texas in that regard, but maybe just a notch down.

        One thing is certain. Whoever starts will have beaten out some very good competition given their bios. They all seem to have big upside, but unknown how it translates to FCS level since they’re starting from zero.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by SteinPizza View Post

          Thanks Clenz. This is going to be really interesting to watch. Also, don’t get too down on whoever starts if they have a bad first couple of games (the board in general, not Clenz specifically). If it’s Martens or Fomby, the learning curve is big. I agree that Martens going thru spring ball gives him a nice start. Iowa St has a bunch of guys back on D, so that’s a tough game for whoever starts.

          One thing about Fomby. Coming from Georgia, that’s some SERIOUS high school football. Nothing against St Louis or the Des Moines metro area, but if a kid puts up numbers and stands out in Georgia he’s damn good. It’s similar to Florida and Texas in that regard, but maybe just a notch down.

          One thing is certain. Whoever starts will have beaten out some very good competition given their bios. They all seem to have big upside, but unknown how it translates to FCS level since they’re starting from zero.
          Agreed.

          Even if it's Keller, the most experienced QB on roster and it's not close, we are trotting a QB out that has something like 9 career snaps - all in the final 3 minutes of games that were blow outs. Doesn't matter who gets the job, there are going to be pains. Sadly, the way way Dannen - and apparently Harris as well - want to schedule isn't conducive to starting a young QB and setting them up for success from day 1.

          Fomby does come from a very talent rich area. I went through a list of kids from just the Gwinnett suburb area that signed NLIs this year and 41 signed P5 offers, 10 signed G5 offers, 29 signed FCS offers. There were also 81 that signed either at the D2 or CC level. Almost all the kids at the D2 level were D2 powers in the SE. Every single JUCO kid signed to the JUCOs in Kansas and almost all of them signed with Garden City, Hutchinson and Butler, AKA the best JUCOs in Kansas which is considered to be one the top JUCO league in the country. That is 161 players from that one county/suburb of Atlanta. In terms of square miles, that area is the same size as Bremer county - I mean within 1 square mile difference in size. Yes, the population is VERY different, but imagine an area the size of Bremer county producing that kind of talent EVERY single year.

          That's why I think it's hard to compare Fomby, entirely on numbers and even film. He had more talent around him on offense, which in theory should help his numbers. It also means he's facing guys every single week that the rest of our recruits probably aren't.

          One thing I thought of that is small, seems dumb, but could play a factor when it comes to designing a game plan and a full system around the QB. Martens is a southpaw. I don't know if it makes that much difference, but in terms of play strength, direction, blocking, etc. I would think it makes at least a bit of difference. I also know the ball flies different, and spins different, from a southpaw. If Farley wants to run a 2 QB system, that could be a factor that may hurt even more than just running 2 QBs.
          GO PANTHERS!!!!!!!

          Comment


          • Anybody hear any scuttle about Garret Jansen...the DL from Iowa who has announced he'll grad transfer...possibly ending up at UNI?

            I heard a whisper of a rumor a few weeks ago. Far from definitive.

            The kid is from Pella and I think UNI recruited him hard out of HS. That and the chance to play for Paup...and the fact we lost our starting DT from last year...made this seem plausible.
            Winning is more fun than losing.

            Comment


            • I haven't, but I haven't looked too hard.

              He certainly doesn't have the profile from his Iowa days to land at another P5. Most G5s are a stretch. Considering his connection to the state of Iowa it seems like he could fit. I'd also guess SDSU, USD and WIU will be in for him.
              GO PANTHERS!!!!!!!

              Comment


              • Anyone know if Marcel Minniefield is still actively playing ball? He's still listed on the roster but I don't recall seeing him in uniform last season.

                Didn't know if he had a season ending injury early last year or something more significant.
                Winning is more fun than losing.

                Comment


                • Hero Sports' ranking of the 2019 FCS recruiting classes. They have UNI at #5

                  https://m.herosports.com/fcs/footbal...ankings-ajaj#2

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Yupster View Post
                    Hero Sports' ranking of the 2019 FCS recruiting classes. They have UNI at #5

                    https://m.herosports.com/fcs/footbal...ankings-ajaj#2
                    Interesting list with some odd names....

                    3 Ivy League schools, Western Carolina and SFA.
                    Winning is more fun than losing.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Yupster View Post
                      Hero Sports' ranking of the 2019 FCS recruiting classes. They have UNI at #5

                      https://m.herosports.com/fcs/footbal...ankings-ajaj#2
                      I think I saw that Martens was the top ranked FCS QB signing according to them. I don’t put huge stock in the star ranking services, but just how credible is Hero Sports?

                      Comment


                      • They don't claim to do any actual evaluating, although it's hard to tell how they distinguish some players from others. Their posts allude to some formula based on what they determine as other "quality" offers. In the end, it really just means they got a lot of players that other people wanted.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by SteinPizza View Post

                          I think I saw that Martens was the top ranked FCS QB signing according to them. I don’t put huge stock in the star ranking services, but just how credible is Hero Sports?
                          Hero is as good as you'll get for the FCS level. Their coverage has far surpassed STATS in the last year or two. HERO has dumped a bunch of money into their FCS coverage lately.

                          They don't "evaluate" players by going to games and watching a ton of film - though they do watch some. They act as a "more accurate" 247 for the FCS. They'll go through a kids offers to check on the "validity" of them, rankings from other sites, competition faced, etc. 247 will have their own ranks for kids, but what people really use 247 for, and they know it, is the composite ranks and combining of everything else that exists.

                          It's not a perfect system. I'd argue calling it "good" right now is about as far as it could be twisted too. That's not a fault at HERO, just the reality of doing what they can with what recruiting's world is. I will say if you want to look for someplace for FCS rankings, like the "big boys" get, this is it.

                          They've been doing this since 2016, but this is the first year they've put a ton of marketing into it and sold them as being a truly one stop viable ranking - which is a direct reflection on them putting way more money and resources into their FCS coverage in the last year.

                          Here is the 2016 rankings - UNI was number 5, Montana was #4
                          Here is the 2017 rankings - UNI was number 47
                          Here is the 2018 rankings - UNI was number 41

                          What' you'll find if you look at the rankings is a lot of programs that aren't very good as programs in the top 20-30. This is a direct reflection of how the "star" system in general is broke and why places like Stephan F Austin end up signing 13 3* kids almost every year, have a top flight recruiting class on paper every year, yet are never good.

                          Go through the 2016 rankings and you'll see Austin Peay, Colgate, SFA, Lamar, Eastern Kentucky, UND, Samford, McNeese State, Chatty, Charleston Southern, Furman, Columbia (bottom of the Ivy), Bethune-Cookman (bottom of the MEAC). These are schools that now should be top 20 programs with that class having now had 3 years to develop and become contributors this coming season. They don't be.

                          If you look at 2017 programs like Prairie View A&M (bottom of the SWAC), Howard (bottom of the MEAC), Austin Peay (Again), Holy Cross (bottom of the PL), Furman (again), Savanah State (who was the worst FCS program and has dropped D2), Texas Southern (bottom of the SWAC), Charleston Southern, Tennessee State, Monmouth (who we saw get curbed in the dome), UT-Martin (who we've seen get clubbed in the dome), UND (who is a bad program), Columbia (again), SIU (bottom of the Valley), NAU (towards the bottom of the BSC), USD, EKU (again), Chatty (again), Mercer (who isn't great) ALL ranked a head of UNI's class. I wouldn't trade UNI's class for any of those.

                          In 2018 these schools apparently had better (or at least as good) recruiting classes than UNI Holy Cross, UT-Martin, Campbell, Duquense, Alcorn State, Furman, Houston Baptist, Bethune Cookman, YSU, Tennessee State, Howard, Murray State, Prairie View AM, Grambing, Western Carolina, The Citadel, Stony Brook, Austin Peay, Columbia, Mercer, Chatty, Montana State.

                          Look at the freshman and sophomores we've had the last two years. Do you really think that the kids signed at Holy Cross, non scholarship Campbell or half scholarship Duquesne are better?

                          Now, as I've said, this year is the first year they've put this much work into them. Still not great. According to the last 4 class rankings from them Chatty should be every bit as good as NDSU. They are right there with NDSU in the top 10 recruiting classes every single season.
                          GO PANTHERS!!!!!!!

                          Comment


                          • I’ve always said football recruiting is an art, not science. It’s why there are plenty of FCS and DII level guys on NFL rosters every year. If it were science, then those same players would all end up playing in the SEC, or at Ohio State, etc, and displace those who are not NFL caliber.

                            Put another way, someone did a study of the Super Bowl rosters of both teams a few years ago. I think it was somewhere around 30-40% of both rosters were made up of 3 star or below high school recruits according to one of the big sites, with plenty of 2, 1, no star guys in that list. Those type of guys aren’t going to Alabama. If future NFL players were so easy to identify, then the above would not be true.

                            Comment


                            • Although NFL rosters are largely made up of 3 stars and below, that is at least somewhat the result of there being far fewer 4 and 5 stars. I'd think that an analysis of 5 stars would likely reveal that the majority of them make it to the NFL. Still, a good college player doesn't necessarily make a good NFL prospect. The ratings system biggest failure is that it can only really evaluate where a player is right now. So much goes into a good high school player developing into a productive college player, some of which depends on the player and some depends on their situation.
                              Last edited by Yupster; 02-12-2019, 10:28 AM.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Yupster View Post
                                Although NFL rosters are largely made up of 3 starts and below, that is at least somewhat the result of there being far fewer 4 and 5 stars. I'd think that an analysis of 5 stars would likely reveal that the majority of them make it to the NFL. Still, a good college player doesn't necessarily make a good NFL prospect. The ratings system biggest for is that it can only really evaluate where a player is right now. So much goes into a good high school player developing into a productive college player, some of which depends on the player and some depends on their situation.
                                This is true.

                                Rivals, IIRC, has between 25-35 5 star kids each year. Going through the last decade they average 30 per season. The kids from 31-250 are 4* kids. Between 251-750 is 3*. Anything outside of 751 is 2 star or not ranked.

                                When you start looking at NFL drafts by recruiting stars:

                                It’s not a scientific set of data (you'd need many more years of data than I pulled to make an absolute conclusion), but here’s what the percentage of players drafted per recruiting rankings look like if you combine the handful of years I pulled:
                                About 60% of 5 star kids get drafted
                                About 25% of four-star kids get drafted
                                About 6% of three-star kids get drafted
                                About 1-2% of two-star kids get drafted

                                Five-stars, in general, are eventually drafted 50-plus percent of the time. Three-star players, meanwhile, make it at a rate of around five percent.

                                So yes, as much as recruiting services are pretty silly for their rankings outside of their top end talent and teams, they generally do a damn good job identifying and "ranking" the talent of kids.

                                Having said that, yes there are more players of 3 star and lower in the NFL. There are 1,696 players, excluding practice squad, in the NFL. There are roughly 30 five-star kids in any given year. There are roughly 500 three star kids in any given year. Basic math tells you that NFL rosters are going to have significant numbers from outside of the 5 star ranks.

                                GO PANTHERS!!!!!!!

                                Comment

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