Looking Forward

[English77]

We stole one here.

I get what you mean, and I’m not being critical—but, is that how UNI fans should think of it? We “stole” him from a more prestigious program? I’m ecstatic he always wanted to be a Panther.

[orangetennis]

How tall is Duax?

[BCPanther]

How tall is Duax?

All of 6-5 maybe a hair more.

[Blue42]

I get what you mean, and I’m not being critical—but, is that how UNI fans should think of it? We “stole” him from a more prestigious program? I’m ecstatic he always wanted to be a Panther.

So am I.

My point...he looks like a guy that could have gotten P5 offers. In most cases that means we lose a guy. See Will Tschetter. But that didn't happen.

[PantherAlum09]

All of 6-5 maybe a hair more.

I honestly think he might be taller. There were many times during timeouts I would see him standing with the team and he didn't look far off Courbat and honestly closer to Anderson. I love this kid's potential. I think he is going to be a fan favorite who will bring toughness and attitude.

[BCPanther]

I honestly think he might be taller. There were many times during timeouts I would see him standing with the team and he didn't look far off Courbat and honestly closer to Anderson. I love this kid's potential. I think he is going to be a fan favorite who will bring toughness and attitude.

He's got 4 older brothers that have all played D2/D3 ball including one that was league DPOY at Upper Iowa. Just growing up in that environment is going to make you one tough SOB when you're the youngest.

[DownGoesKansas]

He's got 4 older brothers that have all played D2/D3 ball including one that was league DPOY at Upper Iowa. Just growing up in that environment is going to make you one tough SOB when you're the youngest.

Yup. I hope he's spent all year working on shooting to. Probably the one semi-missing piece.

[BrockLesnar]

Yup. I hope he's spent all year working on shooting to. Probably the one semi-missing piece.

The three brothers at Upper Iowa are decent shooters. So, he gets his share of pointers. Upper Iowa made the 2nd round of the D2 NCAA. They have some rebuilding to do next season, but should be in contention.

[unifan]

Well… at what point now do we expect to be hearing about outgoing and/or incoming players for 2022-2023?

[Panther AC]

Well… at what point now do we expect to be hearing about outgoing and/or incoming players for 2022-2023?

We won't find out anything until AJ gets his evaluation from the NBA folks and Phyfe gets more input from the medical experts about his long-term COVID effects. Don't look for anything in the immediate future.

[SteinPizza]

Yup. I hope he's spent all year working on shooting to. Probably the one semi-missing piece.

Incorrect. While a shooter or two wouldn’t hurt, the biggest thing by far next year is for Henry and Betz to develop enough to contribute solid, consistent, all game minutes. We need some guys with some strength and bulk inside to least provide a defensive and rebounding presence. Jake fell in love with the four guard plus Carter offense. Carter isn’t the inside type guy you need. Great player, but that’s not his game. You could argue Phyfe’s illlness killed us, but he’s only one ****ing player. You need a few of those guys that can play. Either get Henry or Betz ready, or bring in a couple of transfers.

Not trying to be overly negative towards the season as whole. This team did a great job turning it around. But, if you want to beat national level teams and not just Evansville, the above needs to happen. You can’t rely on shooting 60% from three to win every game.

[unipanther2154]

Incorrect. While a shooter or two wouldn’t hurt, the biggest thing by far next year is for Henry and Betz to develop enough to contribute solid, consistent, all game minutes. We need some guys with some strength and bulk inside to least provide a defensive and rebounding presence. Jake fell in love with the four guard plus Carter offense. Carter isn’t the inside type guy you need. Great player, but that’s not his game. You could argue Phyfe’s illlness killed us, but he’s only one ****ing player. You need a few of those guys that can play. Either get Henry or Betz ready, or bring in a couple of transfers.

Not trying to be overly negative towards the season as whole. This team did a great job turning it around. But, if you want to beat national level teams and not just Evansville, the above needs to happen. You can’t rely on shooting 60% from three to win every game.

It’s going to have to be a transfer and we HAVE to go that route. One guy is not a D-1 player (especially MVC level) and I’m not sure the other is either. Cole is incredibly athletic but honestly seems lost at this level. I tend to cringe when he’s around the rim even trying to shoot. He’s young so he definitely has a chance to progress over time but as of now he won’t be our answer in the post. Unfortunately we continue to recruit projects at the post and we’re not developing them at all. I’m very confident Courbet won’t be able to contribute next year either. It’s honestly pretty scary what our outlook is at post for the future at this point.

I would love to eat crow and these guys come out and prove me wrong.

[SteinPizza]

It’s going to have to be a transfer and we HAVE to go that route. One guy is not a D-1 player (especially MVC level) and I’m not sure the other is either. Cole is incredibly athletic but honestly seems lost at this level. I tend to cringe when he’s around the rim even trying to shoot. He’s young so he definitely has a chance to progress over time but as of now he won’t be our answer in the post. Unfortunately we continue to recruit projects at the post and we’re not developing them at all. I’m very confident Courbet won’t be able to contribute next year either. It’s honestly pretty scary what our outlook is at post for the future at this point.

I would love to eat crow and these guys come out and prove me wrong.

To be clear, I’m not talking about traditional
post, back to the basket types. I’m talking bigger guys who are athletic and would fit in this offense. That’s NOT Carter. He’s just as much of a guard as the relatively slightly built (6’4, 200lbs is not big by D1 standards) guys who dominate the roster. He’s just more versatile.

Two prototypes for what I mean - Murphy and Hemphill from Drake. Both guys who are 6’6 or so, strong enough to defend down low and rebound, and athletic enough to occasionally drive, hit the occasional three, and provide an inside presence that your shooter type guards cannot. The other reason for mentioning them - they’re recruits who are winnable by us. It does no good to bring up some kid who went to Wisconsin, etc. We’ll lose 99.9% of those recruiting battles.

[not a drake fan]

Jake's teams have been pretty predictable if you look at experience returning. His teams that return a lot of minutes and points are better, and his teams that don't, are not. That seems obvious I'm sure, but not all programs are that clean cut with this.

Below is a link to a chart that shows the percentage of minutes and points returning from past UNI teams, and whether their Kenpom went up or down the following year. 35-40% is roughly the turning point, where graduating more than that has resulted in teams that got worse the next year.

https://ibb.co/cD91gHZ

You can use those numbers to make a rough projection for next year. If they lose Burhow and Pickford, but return everybody else, they will losing 23% of their minutes, the trendline estimates a Kenpom of 60 next year. I actually think they'd be better than that.

If they also lose AJ, but keep Phyfe, that means they graduate 43% of their minutes and points, and I'd estimate that they have a Kenpom around 122 next year. However, I think there is room for growth in this scenario if Phyfe's COVID situation is any better next fall.

If they lose both, that would be 50% of their minutes and points and I'd estimate a Kenpom of 142 next year.

As mentioned in another thread, Loyola may be losing about 80% of their minutes next year, and I think this table puts into perspective just how much they relied on seniors this year.

['70 Grad]

Also thought Heise went downhill mentally with his shot. He should not have missed the # of free throws he did in some of the late games. Solid player, but he did better with the 3 (which sets up the drive) before. True or not, it seemed like Pickford felt more comfortable shooting than him. He can do it.

Would be nice to get that inside presence, but that is and has been the hardest to recruit.

Didn't watch the Murray State game, except for the introductions - they are a top 25 team & have no seniors starting? OMG